Why loyalty programs are hitting a growth ceiling

Consumers are collecting memberships much faster than they're building habits. The average consumer now belongs to 17.4 loyalty programs, up 60% over the past decade, according to Upside’s “Escaping the loyalty plateau” report. But active participation has risen just 8% over the same period, to 8.4 programs.

Part of the reason is that joining has become almost frictionless. A phone number, email address, or app download is often all it takes, making it easy to sign up for every retailer you visit instead of choosing just one.

That has left retailers competing for the attention of customers who belong to several rival programs at once.

  • The average grocery loyalty member belongs to 2.4 grocery programs, fuel shoppers to 2.3 fuel and convenience programs, and restaurant customers to 3.2 restaurant loyalty programs, per Upside.

Even though loyalty enrollment is widespread, engagement still trails well behind. Upside found that just 59% of grocery members regularly use their program, compared with 49% for fuel and convenience and 38% for restaurants, leaving a sizable gap between enrollment and participation.

Even grocery, one of the most mature loyalty categories, has room to grow. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of shoppers say they're enrolled in and actively use a grocery loyalty program, while another 4% are enrolled but inactive and 14% say they would join if their preferred grocer offered one, according to January data from Progressive Grocer.

Most loyalty programs shift share, not wallets

Upside's loyalty influence score, which measures the average influence of a loyalty program on spending, shopping behavior, advocacy, and purchase frequency, ranks restaurants highest at 45.0 out of 100, followed by fuel and convenience at 42.8, and grocery at 39.2.

Restaurant and fuel programs are most likely to drive repeat visits and recommendations, while grocery programs are more likely to influence what shoppers buy and when they shop. Across every category, however, increasing overall spending ranked last.

This could be because many retailers aren’t investing in the benefits shoppers care about the most.

Globally, the most valued loyalty rewards are free shipping and returns (53%) and cashback (52%), per December 2025 data from Censuswide and Dot Digital. Free products or samples (45%), birthday rewards (43%), and personalized discounts (40%) also rank highly.

Experiential perks generate far less enthusiasm. Just 27% of consumers value early product access or extended warranties, while only 15% want VIP services and 12% are interested in exclusive events.

The pattern is even more pronounced in restaurants. Discounts motivate 82% of quick-service restaurant (QSR) loyalty visitors to join a program, followed by free menu items (77%), found an October 2025 survey from Alchemer. Convenience features and exclusive menu items both trail at 41%.

Personalization is becoming loyalty's competitive edge

Just 20% of restaurant consumers, 11% of fuel and convenience shoppers, and 10% of grocery shoppers are "brand-first" consumers, meaning they'll happily redeem rewards but would likely shop with the retailer anyway. Loyalty programs do little to change their behavior.

Instead, most consumers fall into a more persuadable middle. Roughly 6 in 10 grocery shoppers (60%), restaurant diners (58%), and fuel shoppers (56%) are "preference-first" consumers who have favorite brands but remain highly price sensitive.

Those shoppers represent the biggest opportunity for retailers, but winning them requires more than another points program or blanket discount. Best-in-class programs, like Nike and Starbucks, tend to differentiate themselves in three ways, found Upside:

  • Deliver more relevant personalization. Instead of broad promotions, they tailor offers and content to each member's shopping habits and preferences.
  • Expand loyalty beyond points. They incorporate digital services like buy online, pick up in-store (BOPIS), delivery, returns, and other convenience features that make the program useful throughout the shopping journey.
  • Create premium member experiences. Exclusive access, priority service, and other high-value perks give consumers a reason to stay engaged beyond earning discounts.

 

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